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> Self driving cars are coming fast. It’s largely a solved problem.

Something about the Ninety-ninety rule seems appropriate here:


I think self driving cars are much closer to 10 years out than the "today" that the author asserts, but I think everyone agree's that we've reached the point where they are coming no matter what.

To give the author credit I went into reading this thinking he was absurd but he does make a good point, some of the points I think are over sold, like planned obsolescence but I think his thesis is sound.

One point I'll make on Uber's behalf......

Two of my all time favorite books are:


This history of Go computing.

and Ben Horowitz The hard thing about hard things.


Both do a very good job of bringing the reader into the chaotic environment that occurs when startups are in trouble and both have a very similar message. When startups get in trouble having very powerful investors and mentors can make a huge difference.

Uber has some very influential backers. See:


If/When times get tough, they have people who have a vested interest in seeing them succeed. People who can get them talking to the correct people at the car manufacturers to convince them to use Uber's platform over an internally created one.

If self driving laws drag on many years before they are settled then Uber may be fucked in the end but there isn't any reason why they can't be a cash printing machine over the next 10- 20 years while self driving cars replace humans.

As to car companies cutting out uber, there is this.....


I had a hearty chuckle at the "It’s largely a solved problem." line. It does seem like in the next 5 years or so we'll be about 99% of the way to fully automated vehicles that can pick you up and take you anywhere a 'normal' car and driver can go... But that last 1% is a bunch of incredibly difficult problems that could easily take another 10-20 years.

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