> Not only will the EU trade treaty need to be renegotiated, but so does the 50 other trade treaty with other nations - those treaties took a lot of time and over 600+ negotiators to write, the UK only have 30 negotiators and about 2 years.
The UK hasn't done their own trade negotiations for over 30 years. The EU has. They haven't got the right people with the right experience to do this (yet). They need to hire the best they can, or outsource, in order to get things in place within the deadline once the UK parliament has voted the referendum result through and Article 50 is submitted.
It is going to be tight. I imagine that Whitehall is in a shit storm right now.
The EU has done an extremely bad job of signing trade deals. Much smaller countries have managed to do a much better job. I wouldn't look at the EU and say "we need the same setup" because the EU deliberately makes it hard for itself to sign deals by insisting that they try to satisfy 28 different countries simultaneously, who don't use the same language and which all have their own random domestic priorities to handle.
I've actually read trade deals. The idea that there's only a handful of people in the world who can negotiate these things is ridiculous.
Could you provide some examples of countries striking better trade deals.
Its also two things negotiators and knowing your strengths.
The world's best negotiators wont be able help you very much if you do not have much to offer.
Also I am skeptical of your assertion that anyone could write trade deals. It requires a very deep understanding of economics, international finance, geopolitics and a bunch of other topics - I would say being able to be a good trade negotiator is a lot more difficult than being a programmer and has far more profound consequences.
Chile is a good example. More deals, better (more often including services) and earlier.
Like I said, I've read trade deals. One I actually read almost from start to finish (the recent WTO deal on upgrading customs rules, I forgot the specific name).
If Chile can sign trade deals with much bigger economic powers, much more quickly than the EU can, I see no reason why the UK would be unable to. Can you justify your assertion that trade negotiation is much harder than programming, or is that just a feeling?
Signing deals fast is easy. Signing deals that cover everything is easy. It's useless to talk about this without analysing what actual benefits they get out of them.
What do you think is better about Chile's trade deals compared to, say, the UK's access to the common market? The UK's trade deal with the EU was surely more powerful than Chile's relationship to the US.
It's not in the EU's interest to have a free trade agreement with China; the US doesn't have one either.
China pursues a mercantilist strategy in many respects. Take steel, for example: unrestricted trade with China would wreak havoc on Germany's steel industry, with potential knock-on effects further along the value chain - and there's no guarantee that China would keep steel prices low after predatory pricing.
Are you saying "any trade deal is better than no trade deal?". Just because the EU doesn't have one with China doesn't mean Switzerland's deal is better.... than a deal that doesn't exist.
I think it was BBC that said that UK government has literally just 6(yes, six) people who have any sort of experience in international trade negotiations, since UK hasn't done it alone in so long.
Even if the UK had the people to start trade negotiations right this second, they're not allowed to until they leave the EU and it takes years to negotiate such an agreement.
It would take decades for the UK to catch up to the EU on trade agreements again, if they ever do.
The UK can negotiate deals before exit, just under EU law it can't sign them.
However, why obey EU rules when you're about to leave? The only reason to do this would be to leave on good terms. But the EU sees Brexit as a betrayal that must be punished severely to try and scare other countries into not leaving. There are no "good terms" by their choice, not the UK's.
So the UK should start immediately violating whatever EU rules are convenient to do so, once Article 50 is invoked.
The EU is a huge group of people with a huge range of opinions on Brexit. It's not clear at all that the EU will try to inflict as much damage as possible. It wouldn't be a very good idea either because that would hurt the EU as well. There's almost certainly going to be a compromise of some kind.
I doubt any trade agreements the UK might be able to get, would be worth the backlash of turning the EU into an enemy. Especially considering that anyone the UK would want to trade with, probably doesn't also want to harm their relationship to the EU. That last point alone probably ensures that nobody is going to start trade discussions with the UK anyway until after they leave.
I wish I could agree. For me to agree I'd have to believe the people who control the EU are representative of the people they rule and are willing to compromise.
However they have already shown very clearly that they aren't like that. Given the total absence of compromise previously I see no reason to expect any now, unless quite a few of the current leaders of the Commission and EU countries are removed.
The EU will use whatever tactics it can to preserve its own power, national populations be damned.
Nowadays, not so much. Perhaps that's Juncker, or perhaps it's the fact that it's now so large. See how Cameron's negotiation went (or rather, didn't).
Besides, most of the compromises were simply not forcing the UK to do new things. That's only seen as a compromise because the EU is run by people who believe every member should be forcibly 'harmonised' through automatic implementation of new EU laws. If the EU was more like a standards body that simply recommended laws instead of mandating their implementation, there would be no need for allowing alternatives to be seen as "compromise"
If you don't mandate implementation, you don't have a level playing field; you have a race to the bottom on everything from tax levels to working laws to product standards. Game theoretically, everybody loses in a race to the bottom.
There would be no point in an EU that couldn't mandate laws.
The EU does not control tax law, yet apparently lots of people believe it still has a point. The EU cannot mandate tax or worker rights outside of the EU either. So the only way to stop a "race to the bottom" is to become entirely protectionist and go full North Korea.
Suffice it to say, the EU could have taken many structures that are not the one it has now.
> If the EU was more like a standards body that simply recommended laws instead of mandating their implementation, there would be no need for allowing alternatives to be seen as "compromise"
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Then why have an EU?
The problem for the UK is that they always want have all the benefits but they don't want all the duties.
The UK is not being punished by the EU. The UK punched itself a bloody nose and a few teeth out before jumping into the horse trading, shark pool that is international diplomacy.
There are lots of small favours that the UK will now need to hand out to get what it wants from EEA member states. These favours will cost. Its loosing a institute or a foundation there.
Its clear that the UK benefited a lot economically from being in the single market and regaining access under new agreements is going to be costly. That is not punishment. That is the real world, the UK ate its cake no one is going to give it a new one for free.
I really don’t mind the brexit voters, them I understand. I can’t understand how a conservative party launched itself in the most revolutionary course imaginable over internal politics. Not just reversing 40 years of slow progress in one direction but burning it all down to the ground. Over a very badly phrased referendum.
I think Cameron will go down in history as a terrible PM, a modern day Chamberlain.
When that treaty is merely "you cannot sign trade deals" I don't think people signing trade deals would care. That rule exists for the EU's benefit, not for the benefit of member states.
Thats not the point of deals - merely convincing your prospective trade partner that a deal is unfair to you at that time is a hard sell.
The UK signed the deal knowing the consequences of it, why would another country sign a trade deal with you knowing that you will not follow the terms due to your countries internal politics ?
Why would anyone in the EU want to negotiate or do anything other than stall until the UK is under WTO rules? Wouldn't they want the UK in as weak a position as possible?
No. This is the zero-sum mentality that has been causing the EU such serious economic problems.
Trade creates wealth and wealth is not zero sum. Trade deals get signed because all parties involved believe it will be to their mutual benefit. Why would you want to sign a trade deal with a weak country? It is self-defeating: you would get little out of it.
Parts of the EU establishment seem locked in a mindset that they can only grow by taking things away from others. I saw a lot of discussion post-Brexit by countries that want to abuse regulatory passporting to try and force banks and other high-earning firms into other EU countries, but no discussion at all about making those countries naturally more attractive. It's the equivalent of saying "We will grow our economy by forcing Facebook to relocate its HQ from Silicon Valley to France by passing a regulation saying they must do so". Even if you brought overwhelming political and economic power to bear and somehow forced the Zuck to move to Paris, it'd just be a terrible idea for all sorts of long term reasons.
> Trade deals get signed because all parties involved believe it will be to their mutual benefit.
I think that's optimistic. Deals get signed fundamentally because each side individually benefits. A better deal will see the weaker partner able to grow as a result, but that's not necessary for it to be worthwhile to the stronger partner.
> Why would you want to sign a trade deal with a weak country? It is self-defeating: you would get little out of it.
There's always a stronger and a weaker player at the table. It might take some fiddling to work out which is which, and it's certainly not limited to a single axis, but deals still happen.
> abuse regulatory passporting
I don't see that as abuse, that's just playing the game with the pieces that are on the board. From France's point of view, given the choice between a quick zero-sum win where they gain the limited number of banks available and a long-term mutual win where everyone grows, why not do both?
The UK hasn't done their own trade negotiations for over 30 years. The EU has. They haven't got the right people with the right experience to do this (yet). They need to hire the best they can, or outsource, in order to get things in place within the deadline once the UK parliament has voted the referendum result through and Article 50 is submitted.
It is going to be tight. I imagine that Whitehall is in a shit storm right now.