I don't think that was the gamble when Buffet made the bet. The gamble then was, in ten years of completely unknown (at the time) market conditions, the S&P 500 will outperform hedge funds.
If you picked a different 10 years (say, 199X-200X or 200X-201X), I suspect that Buffet wins for most values of X, but I have not checked.
If you picked a different 10 years (say, 199X-200X or 200X-201X), I suspect that Buffet wins for most values of X, but I have not checked.