My question sounds overly generalized, but indulge me:
Can you think of any worthwhile/interesting software that is desktop-specific (Windows/Linux/Mac) and that does not already have in-production offerings by at least two competing teams?
It's actually shocking how difficult I'm finding it to answer this question. Ten years ago you could have said anything from money management software, to code editors, vector image editors, remote storage, news readers etc. etc. but now all of those markets seem to be addressed and with saturated competition.
This makes me wonder whether the "organic software" model of companies like Bohemian Software (Sketch) and Panic (Coda, Transmit) is no longer viable. If you were to create such a company today, what kind of software would you write? Is there still even a single opening in the desktop space for any kind of new software? And how could you assure your ability to compete on the chance that a megacorp (Google, Apple) suddenly implements all of your software functionality and builds it into their services for free?
Is there any path forward for independent studios making desktop software anymore?
Money? That's harder, unfortunately. It's hard to innovate when people want to cling on to what they already know. Make an image processing & digital painting utility, and people would only complain that it's not photoshop. Make a word processor, people complain that it's not MS Office.