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I think people like to be correct in predicting the failure of crazy-sounding ideas because they don't want to feel like they are missing out on something big. I know I predicted that Google was all hype when it was selling at $200/share and unloaded the few shares I had. I kick myself for it now obviously, and even though it made no financial difference to me whether it sunk to $25 or went up to $600 (since I no longer owned shares), I still couldn't help hoping it would tank so I would feel like I made the correct decision.

I think this is really why you don't have to worry about competitors. If your idea is good enough, everyone will think you are crazy/naive. If your idea is simply decent, you'll never pick it anyway (because it's not exciting enough to you) and it will end up getting done by some existing company. Either way whatever you actually choose to work on will be unique until it's proven, by which point no competitor is catching you anyway.




> so I would feel like I made the correct decision

It's not just about feeling. If Google had tanked, you would be more justified (in a statistical sense) to think that you're smart and to engage into more financial transaction.




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