Take it from this "denier", the vast bulk of my "denialism" comes from what you're saying. Where there should have been humility in the face of chaos, there was claims of certainty, and where there should have been more research, there was a push to rewrite the foundation of the global economy in the service of dubious truths.
Lecturing the "deniers" on the nature of science is a waste, you need to be aiming it at the "warmists".
The science of climate is indeed changing and refining, but you don't get to just ignore those changes and refinements and hold on to the interpretation you started with so many decades ago, nor do you get to be sanctimonious at those who are refining their views. The fundamental problem of AGW as "science" is that it's changing and refining itself away from AGW-as-a-problem and potentially right away from AGW-as-a-detectable-signal. "Deniers" are the ones who are actually willing to follow the science as the most-likely-correct interpretation is changing. The ones who are sticking to AGW-as-a-world-shattering-problem should probably be called "clingers", if we're going to toss labels around.
(Actually, I don't intrinsically have a problem with the idea of AGW, I just think the evidence is that it's utterly swamped by other signals, rather than the dominant signal as the whole last 20 years of propaganda has been claiming.)
I actually find it amazing the number of people trying to pull this feat off, to both admit that the science has been wanting and there's a lot more to learn about this chaotic system and indeed the very data itself shows strong signs of having been corrupted but handwave handwave therefore I am justified in continuing to hold the beliefs that I formed on the basis of this bad science and corrupted data and I am justified in calling you names if you don't. I'm having some trouble with the handwave step.
This is a classic example of the flaw in so many GWD's reasoning. You deliberately choose not to base your opinion on a scientific matter on actually reading studies, listening to experts, observing evidence and learning about the underlying physics.
Instead you write 3 paragraphs that reduce, "I don't like YOU or how YOU are saying it." You reduce a complex and ongoing field of study down to a personality judgement. Does my personality or personal failings in any way change the science? Of course not. But somehow that's so relevant to the issue at hand that it's the majority of your post.
All I can do—as someone who's expertise and education lies in computer science and math—is understand some of the underlying physics, read some of the less dense papers, and listen to the experts. I don't like all the experts, but they're experts. I don't have to like them for their opinion to be right.
But, if you're trying to suggest I'm committing a specific logical fallacy, please name and explain it. Otherwise, your character judgements don't really bear relevance in this conversation save as a mean-spirited attack.
I have neither the time nor the expertise to do that. Instead, I rely on the counsel of those who do it for a living. When the predictions made by those people consistently fail to reflect reality, at what point is it OK for me to show signs of skepticism?
I'm curious... What events got you into an extremely skeptical frame of mind? Please be specific.
Most of the overturned predictions were years out before they'd have very direct and visible effects on most westerner's lives. Right now we're just in the beginning-of-climate-instability part of it.
But to answer your question specifically: I've been skeptical since day 1, and I encourage you to be the same. But part of being skeptical is "being convinced by the research and evidence" and "making an honest attempt to learn about the subject."
The hurricane business is a perfect example. It was only a couple of days ago that Al Gore beat that particular drum in his NYT editorial.
And there really is a HUGE amount of data on the subject. The current state of climate research has moved past the argument about "is there warming?" Because there is, we've found a ton of data to validate it. We're up to a very high degree of certainty that this is not purely cyclical (although more data obviously improves this confidence).
Where the research continues to grind is on specific effects of warming (such as this hurricane issue) and specific feedbacks in the system that can either slow or speed the rate of climate change. You see a lot of things about that now in the news now, but you may notice that there is much less discussion of "if the hockey stick really exists."
I'd also like to ask why you care what Al Gore says? He's a poster child and a ideologue for a specific political group. I certainly don't care what he says. He's not making scientific claims that are worth addressing. How he got a Nobel I will never know.