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Does anyone have a source that explains the results of the report with a bit more scientific depth, specifically why global warming would lead to fewe but slightly stronger hurricanes rather than more?

AFAIK the fundamental cause of hurricanes is the evaporation and condensation of water. Higher temperatures cause more evaporation, so it seems pretty obvious that it would cause more opportunities for hurricanes to form.




No, that's not the fundamental cause of hurricanes.

The fundamental cause of hurricanes is the difference between water and air temperatures. If both go up together nothing changes.

The difference is measured from absolute zero, so if both go up 1 degree there is actually even less of a difference than there was before.

Since the water is warm, and the air cold, and every model shows water temperature rise lagging air temperature rise, global warming should cause less hurricanes.

The higher intensity might be because the water would become warmer, and air temperature is not a constant. If a hurricane should happen to form when it's cold out, it'll be somewhat more powerful.

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" ... global warming should cause less hurricanes."

Do you mean lesser, or fewer, hurricanes?

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The original article indicates fewer, but slightly stronger.

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Isn't the driver the difference between surface temperatures and stratospheric ones, right? It all goes back to the adiabatic lapse rate. The question I would have would be how greenhouse gases would affect that. Anybody have that information?

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