Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Yes, your loyal customers who already have your $75,000 car can buy one on a whim, but the point of a $35,000 car that can net $7,500 in federal tax breaks and even more in state tax breaks is that it appeals to people who are in the market segment for, say, a Nissan Leaf or a Toyota Prius.

Most people that buy those cars, while they can afford to spend a little more than your average car buyer, cannot and do not buy cars on a whim. They buy them when their previous car is giving up the ghost and they need a new one. Paying $1,000 to be on a waiting list for two years behind those that can buy a car on a whim is not appealing to that crowd and does nothing to engage their demand, especially since they can go down to their local Nissan/Toyota dealership and drive off the lot with a Leaf/Prius today.

So expecting the enthusiasm of your Model S customers to spur demand for your Model 3 works if and only if the people the Model 3 is targeted at can get one, and if the Model S customers are ahead in the queue when the delivery target is over two years out then their evangelism won't mean anything if the target audience needs to replace their car in the short term (< 2 years) and medium term (> 2 years and < 5) because you're too busy prioritizing your customers for a car that is below their segment.




I think people are assuming that this prioritization is going to cause way more delays than it really will.

There are about 120,000 Tesla owners out there right now. Maybe 130,000 by now, my facts are slightly out of date.

How many of those will be reserving a Model 3? These are people who 1) already have a car 2) which is still pretty new, since most Teslas on the road have been sold in the past couple of years 3) are now used to driving a large, powerful, luxurious car.

Why would they be buying a Model 3? It'll either be because some other car needs replacing at the right time, or they need an extra car, or they don't like the Model S and want something smaller. I don't think that's going to make up a huge proportion of the current owners.

I'd guess a few thousand at most will be reserving a Model 3. That's going to push other people's deliveries back by, what, a month or two? When the wait time is already a year and a half for the first person in line, I don't see this making much of a difference.


> the point of a $35,000 car that can net $7,500 in federal tax breaks and even more in state tax breaks is that it appeals to people who are in the market segment for, say, a Nissan Leaf or a Toyota Prius.

The car is coming out 2017 in California, and will be rolled out for the next 2-3 years afterwards nationwide.

For people who live in say Virginia, that means you might wait till 2019 to get the car.

I'm not sure what audience of people exists that (a) can only afford a Leaf/Prius and (b) are willing to wait perhaps 3-4 years to have a car.

If this audience exists, Tesla absolutely should give them affordances because they are die-hard, potential evangelists who have never owned a Tesla before.

However, I wouldn't count on their numbers being that big.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: