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> > What this underscores, if anything, is the accelerating pace of technological growth, for better or for worse.

> What? This is a non-sequitur. Continued advancement doesn't mean that it is accelerating, and even if this does represent an unexpected achievement that doesn't mean that future development will maintain that pace.

It's not a non-sequitur, but there is an implicit assumption you perhaps missed. The assumption is that the human failure to predict this AI advance is caused by an evolution curve with order higher than linear. You see, humans are amazingly good at predicting linear change. We are actually quite good at predicting x² changes (frisbee catching). Higher than that, we are useless. Even at x², we fail in some scenarios (braking distance at unusual speeds, like 250km/h on the autobahn for example).

The fact that it will maintain its pace is an unfounded assumption. However, assuming that the pace will slow is as unfounded. All in all, I'd guess it is safest to assume tech will evolve as it has in the last 5000 years.

That would be an exponential evolution curve.




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