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It's quite staggering to think the risk adblocking poses to Google's business.

They have virtually no business apart from ads.

AFIAK they have marketshare in the UK (and maybe US) which surpasses print+tv.

Can you imagine this 40 years ago? An invention which cuts out newspaper ads and time travels broadcast TV past the commercials?

Staggering.




Google has two importantly different kinds of ads.

One is where you are searching something and they show you relevant offerings. Here, people are often happy to see the results, as they can move them toward their goal.

The other is where you are trying to do something (read a blog post, watch a video) and they want you to do something else (read about somebody's product, watch a video advertisement). Here many people are resistant, as it takes them away from their chosen activity.

My understanding is that Google makes most of their money from the first kind of ad, and that ad blockers mainly block the second. So I don't think this is a very big deal for them. In Google's shoes, I'd happily let people run ad blockers if they wanted. One, those people were unlikely to click on ads anyhow. And two, it's dangerous money. For their long-term success, they're much better off if they're doing things that customers actually like.

It's dangerous when companies get hooked on money that requires them to work against their users. Look at how much trouble TV networks have had adapting, for example; they just aren't clear on how to make great TV in the same way that places like HBO are. Or look at the sad, slow fall of Yahoo, which has always thought of itself as a media company. They were never able to do much with customer-focused acquisitions like Flickr because they never could quite understand them.


To phrase the dichotomy more simply...

One type of ad is about recognition.

The other type is about solving a problem.

To me, this largely boils down to CPC vs CPM. It will be interesting to see how the market evolves to embrace (or discard) these different types.


I don't care for either type of ad. I've never intentionally clicked an ad that came up in a search result.


My last cofounder had done a ton of user testing on shopping-related behaviors, and it turns out you (and me, generally) are atypical.

He had one session where he told a guy to shop for something he was likely to buy soon. The guy opened up Google, searched for something, and said, as if sharing a secret, "Ignore the stuff in the middle. The really good stuff is here on the side."

That guy was odd in how excited he was, but most people are pretty happy to see relevant advertising when they are seeking something. E.g., Computer Shopper magazine was popular for years with the nerd set, and I have fashion-oriented friends who love getting the big seasonal magazines that are mostly ads. My dad hasn't bought a car or a house for years, but he still likes looking through newspaper ads occasionally just to see what's on offer.

It's definitely not my style, though.


    > to think the risk adblocking poses to Google's
    > business
It's quite staggering to think of the opportunity that owning almost the entire nascent micropayments industry would be.

Between Google Checkout and the size of their existing advertising infrastructure, doesn't seem a reach.

Content owners don't care if they're getting a check from people viewing ads, or people micro-paying, as long as the check is about the same size.


They have all kinds of other businesses besides the ad (which is a large percentage of their revenue). Cloud services, maps, email for work. Very soon they will be selling self driving car systems, which is going to be huge. Even if they made zero through ads, being a search engine, they can charge for positioning. Or they can start their own businesses in literally any area, and drive all the traffic they want to them.


Ads are still about 94% of Google's revenue.


And as I said, if the ads die, they will charge for positioning in the search results.

I'm also pretty sure there are many ways to get around adblock, like rendering the ads on the server instead of a script tag.




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