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Good question. I would like to know what's been debunked in finance.

Personally, I cringe when I hear talking heads correlating then Fibonacci number with the stock market.

And I've come to realize, if Jim Crammer recommends a stock, don't buy it. I would like to know which professional out there has the best track record in stock speculation. It seems like something that we could accurately study, and publish the data?

I don't have the money to speculate in the stock market. It just seems like it's as bad as gambling at this point in history. It interests me though. If I had money it would go to realestate speculation. I'm so wrong on my stock picks, I've though about contrarian investing. Supposedly, there are such people?




You're not "so wrong on your stock picks", you're wrong almost exactly 50% of the time (well actually you should be wrong about 40% of the time, but those 40% of bad picks will lose you about the same amount of money as the 60% of good picks earn you).

Just like everybody else, even most professional fund managers, although they wouldn't like to admit it.


Quantitative risk measures for longer term fundamental investing. Beta, cointegration, correlation, VAR all break down when there is a discrete event that completely changes the fundamental outlook.




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