Let's assume for the sake of discussion that XMPP has died or is at least on its last legs. What could we learn from XMPP that would help us find its replacement?
There are a few key questions that need answering. What did XMPP do right and could be copied? Why did so many big players ditch XMPP? What would it take to get big players to adopt it? What are the existing resources for creating protocols similar to XMPP? Is it possible to simplify a chat protocol or is it complex in nature?
I briefly tried working on an existing XMPP server implementation but found the protocol and all the extension overbearing and very hard to grok.
But XMPP isn't dead (and doesn't have to be). New interesting XEPs are being working on: