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As one who has made arguments that sound similar to, but are importantly different from, the ones you criticize, I will clarify:

1. I don't claim everything always stays on a smooth exponential trend, but that things do so on a large scale as small variations average out. It doesn't surprise me that someone managed to get above-trend performance at Go. However, I predict this will not lead to above-trend GDP.

2. I don't predict we will get human-level AI in 2050. I predict we will probably never reach a tech level that would make human-level AI a possibility. The more people start fretting about the 'AI alignment problem' (which we would in any case no more be able to solve today than Leonardo da Vinci could design a fail-safe nuclear reactor), the lower the probability that we ever reach that tech level. Conversely, though a small thing, this news of continued incremental progress makes me a tiny fraction of a percent more optimistic.




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