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No one in the general population can do that calculation. Try it, go and talk to people.

Or read Gerd Gigerenzer's book Reckoning with Risk http://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-Risk-Learning-Live-Uncertain...

https://plus.maths.org/content/reckoning-risk

And, as Temporal says, without knowing the base rate (am I raising my risk from 1 in 100,000 or from 1 in 1,000?) it provides very little useful information.




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