Not necessarily. AGI might be possible but it's not necessarily possible for two people in a basement. AGI might require some exotic computer architecture which hasn't been invented yet, for example. This would put it a lot closer to nuclear weapons in terms of barriers to existence.
Developing specialized hardware isn't out of reach, because of FPGAs.
One sort of exotic computer architecture I had in mind was a massively parallel (billions of "cores"), NUMA type machine. You can't really do that with an FPGA, can you?
My point is - even if we had, say, a million times more flops, and a million times more memory than the largest supercomputer today, we would still have no clue what to do with it. The problem is lack of algorithms, lack of theory, not lack of hardware.
We do have a clue about the architecture of the human brain. Billions and billions of neurons with orders of magnitude more connections between them.
even if we had, say, a million times more flops, and a million times more memory
The point is that we could have those things but we don't have a million times lower memory latency and we don't have a million times more memory bandwidth. Those things haven't been improving at all for a very long time.
There are tons of algorithms we can think of that are completely infeasible on our current architectures due to the penalty we pay every time we have a cache miss. Simulating something like a human brain would be pretty well nothing but cache misses due to its massively parallel nature. It's not at all inconceivable to me that we already have the algorithm for general intelligence, we just don't have a big enough machine to run it fast enough.
You call this a "clue"? It's like saying that computer architecture is "Billions and billions of transistors with orders of magnitude more connections between them". Not gonna get very far with this knowledge.
...we don't have a million times lower memory latency and...
Ok, let's pretend we have an infinitely fast computer in every way, with infinite memory. No bottleneck of any kind.
What are you going to do with it, if your goal is to build AGI? What algorithms are you going to run? What are you going to simulate, if we don't know how a brain works? Not only we don't have "the algorithm for general intelligence", we don't even know if such an algorithm exists. It's far more likely that a brain is a collection of various specialized algorithms, or maybe something even more exotic/complex. Again, we have no clue. Ask any neuroscientist if you don't believe me.
You would obviously run AIXI: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AIXI
We know how to make AI given infinite computing power. That's not really hard. You can solve tons of problems with infinite computing power. All of the real work is optimizing it to work within resource constraints.
Ok, then, back to the very fast computer.
Simulate the set of all possible states and find the ones which resemble AGI.