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Well said -- that's a terrific summary of my post.

This is well-documented in the literature under the name Dunning-Kruger Effect. It is different from Imposter Syndrome in that the latter implies pathology. You can learn more about research into self-appraisal and skill here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

Note, however, that there's newer evidence that says it's not just incompetent people that overestimate their own abilities, but "Kruger and Dunning’s main data is better explained by positing simply that we all have noisy estimates of our ability and of task difficulty." http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/all-are-unaware.html

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