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Your premise discriminates between two groups.

It's not clear how you can assign a candidate a 90% chance of graduation. That probability must be a subjective assessment that has come from some (biased) source. In truth, an individual will either graduate or not.

In your example, you can assign 0% and 100% probabilities in group A, but you can't in group B. The most plausible mathematical explanation for that is that you collected insufficient relevant information about candidates in group B.




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