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That's an awesome graph. I mean, we could say some things like that the thickness of the gray bit is not so clear, or that it might be better if smoothed, perhaps the legend would be better elsewhere than in the coloured areas, but... it is still a totally expressive and elegant graphic.



Yes it made me realize the rise of retirement-aged persons who don't retire. "Can't" retire? What a shift, in only 14 years!


I did a lot of work a while back doing longevity projections, i.e., stochastic models of the rate of change of mortality rates at different ages as time goes by. It is a bit of a trend that pension funds might choose to offset their risk by entering into longevity swaps, which work like interest rate swaps, swapping floating payments for fixed payments.

Anyway, I attended a few conferences on aging, and all that fun. One thing that stuck out was that, in Germany at least, the ratio of workers to retirees of 4:1 will be more like 2:1 when I reach the current age of retirement.

Another is that you need to consider years of abled life.

A last is that I will never retire, and probably you won't either.

Note that, in Bismarck's time, life expectancy was about 55:

One persistent myth about the German program is that it adopted age 65 as the standard retirement age because that was Bismarck's age. This myth is important because Germany was one of the models America looked to in designing its own Social Security plan; and the myth is that America adopted age 65 as the age for retirement benefits because this was the age adopted by Germany when they created their program. In fact, Germany initially set age 70 as the retirement age (and Bismarck himself was 74 at the time) and it was not until 27 years later (in 1916) that the age was lowered to 65. By that time, Bismarck had been dead for 18 years.


Another myth is that the designers of Social Security in the US did not expect lifespans to increase over time; we are actually a little below target right now on expected lifespans.




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