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I like Renesys's take [1] on the subject as well:

Note that there’s no good exact opinion about the One True Size of the Internet — every provider we talk to has a slightly different guess. The peak of the distribution today (the consensus) is actually only about 502,000 routes, but recognizably valid answers can range from 497,000 to 511,000, and a few have straggled across the 512,000 line already.

[1] http://www.renesys.com/2014/08/internet-512k-global-routes/

It's interesting how they explain that since there's no true consensus for the actual size of the routing table, the "event" of crossing the 512k barrier has frankly already begun ... and, so far, hasn't been catastrophic, nor likely to be.




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