I know, some of you are sick of too many "Ask HN"-submissions. However, this is something that bothers me and I'd like to have your opinion on this.
I have an idea for a startup for quite some time now. I'm still convinced that this idea is 1) very good and 2) could be easily monetized. Long story short: I just found that another startup has launched a service similar to my idea. When I discovered that startup I lost all my motivation to keep on working on this idea. I have to admit that it really was just an idea so far, i.e. I was working on the wire framing and trying to get a team together.
Now my question: What would you guys do? Since it is not exactly executed like I would've done it and I could try to launch it first in my country (Germany), I'm not sure whether to give this idea up or just go for it. It would be easy to dismiss, since it is just an idea so far. On the other hand, I'm really convinced that this idea is very good.
On what criteria would you guys base your decision whether to go on or dismiss that idea?
I always say to continue doing your thing. These guys are just starting out, so even if you are a year late, at most they'll maybe have 1-2% market share.
Go look at their site, see what they did right, see what they did wrong, and modify your product accordingly. If necessary add a few extra features to differentiate yourself
By 1990 or so, there was a company in Ohio selling books on the Internet. They had the books.com address - until web browsers came along later, you just logged in through telnet on a 'curses' capable terminal. It worked OK, and they shipped books on time with low fees, internationally. They had good word-of-mouth on Usenet.
A couple of years later, amazon.com came along claiming "a river of a million books". I think the books.com address was sold to Barnes&Noble around 2000.
Another case is that of EzGov and govWorks (see the documentary Startup.com) As I understand, govWorks started in 1998 (not sure which month), EzGov started in April, 1999.
EzGov appears to have survived and grew to be acquired by ChoicePoint in 2005. govWorks filed bankruptcy in 2001.
So as others here say, there is a lot more than just the starting date at play.
Consider it validation and figure out the big picture, who will get to market faster, is backed by a more aggressive vision and where are the short to long term wins for the consumer.
This is excellent. Let them do the market research for you, examine their user trends to see what works and what does not, and build on their failures. Take all that worked from their site and add some new stuff. Target the same sites they targeted and a few more. They have broken the walls, you now just need to copy them.
I was not sure whether to post it or not. I am still not sure. It's not because I am afraid other people will be interested in this idea (ok, maybe a little bit), but maybe it will bring some bias in the conversation. But I agree that knowing my idea and knowing the competitor would help to assess the situation.
If the idea is so exciting that people might jump on it even if there are 1 or 2 competitors ahead of them, then you'd better be confident in your ability to execute. Because as soon as you launch more competitors will come.
On the other hand, I implemented a blindingly obvious idea for photo sharing that is so clearly the right way of doing things, I thought for sure tons of other sites would be doing the same thing in no time. Four and a half years later it's still unique.
There are definitely a lot of successful startups that take an idea from one country and do it in another. Sure, they may not be huge, but might make some good money in any case.
Yes, I also thought about XING (http://www.xing.com) here in Germany. Many people say it's just a copycat of LinkedIn, but in my opinion they have created a much better business network than LinkedIn. And: they're profitable. Their business model ("Freemium") worked out and they've sucessfully expanded in other European countries and China.
I may be working on a similar business network here in the US (as a contract Rails coder), but with features tailored to a specific market. Even though I'm just doing this as a contract gig (no equity), I genuinely think they will succeed. They are tightly focused on a market that is willing to spend money, can get some good initial traction through personal contacts, and the market they are going after needs features not present in 'generic' sites like LinkedIn or Facebook.
Not really an option. I am from Germany and this is a US based startup. Furthermore, there are many things I don't like about their execution and how they realized the whole concept. I wouldn't be too happy joining them.
But Google had an idea that was different to what Yahoo, et al., were doing that's how they broke in. They were well differentiated and were effectively offering a new product, low spam SERPs drawn from a wider crawl of the 'net.
If Yahoo had already been offering a comparable product to Google then Google wouldn't have done so well at all IMO.
That said, when we started our pottery painting business we were pipped to the post by another very similar business (ie pottery painting) in the same area, we'd already been concerned that the area might not support us alone. We'd started the business, rented a building and refurbed it, quit jobs, bought stock, etc.. Still we're going 5 years later and they lasted 6months before closing (due to family issues).
The point being you can still succeed you're just going to have to try a lot harder. They may fail, even if they're better. You can still win even if they're better (betamax, hddvd, etc.).
Actually, the founders of Google initially wanted to sell their product to Yahoo, Alta Vista, Ask.com, et all.
Nobody really believed their algorithm would significantly better. They were convinced state of the art was all there was and could ever be.
So they founded Google, and pretty much owned their stagnant competitors. There's a reason Ask.com spends good money marketing itself among rednecks with a NASCAR and Google doesn't.
Look at your 'competition'. Do you want your product more than theirs? Can you see areas where your product will be more appealing? If either of those is yes, don't stop.
There will always be competition. I'm working on something (with a partner) that has LOADS of competition, and a lot of that competition is good. But we think that we can do better, because even though other people have written similar things, our product solves our particular needs (and desires) much, much better.
Also, keep in mind that somebody in that market segment, who is making money, validates that your idea can make money.
Clearly the size of the market is going to be a huge factor (if not the primary). If the market cap is $100mm and you think both you and your competitor can only get 1%, then sayonara; it's probably not big enough to carry both of you. If, however, it is $100mm and you think that, between you, you can both capture 20% of that market, then it might be doable provided that you think you can capture about an equal share.
It depends on how much staff you need to get that one percent of the market. One percent of a hundred million dollars is still a million dollars... for a 1-4 person software company with minimal costs, that would be pretty damn reasonable.
Thanks for all the great feedback so far. I really appreciate the valuable advice of you guys. I think I'll go for it. However, it showed me one thing: I need to get things done right now. I will keep you up-to-date. Thanks HN!
There are very, very few markets that it is truly winner take all. Ex. even Airbus/Boeing, Microsoft/Linux/Apple, etc
For most part, I find that ideas are essentially worth the paper that they're scribbled on. It almost always comes down to execution. Go for it! You'll never know until you try, otherwise you'll always be saddled with the shoulda, coulda, wouldas(particularly if that startup competitor ends up exiting in a big way down the road). I learned my lesson the hard way.
Remember, sometimes its better to be a fast follower (and faster at reiterations) than a first mover.
It can be discouraging, but move on or try to out-execute your competitor. Either way, not doing anything about an idea means you should be happy to see someone else do it for you. More ideas will come.
a) Is it working? If not, why?
b) Do you think you know how to do it better?
If yes to both then do it. If no to a) then you'd want to be fairly confident that they got it wrong in some way and didn't just prove it to be a bad idea.
Is your concept search? If yes, get back to the drawing board.
Seriously though, if you aren't going against a company that whose name is used as a verb in the common vernacular, I think you should stick with it. As mentioned, the fact that your idea has been implemented is a validation. If you take it as a defeat then you lose.
What's the problem with going against major incumbents?
Google challenged quite a few players and changed the world.
Firefox stood up to a Monopoly and found its niche.
The day before one of my portfolio companies launched, a stealth competitor launched. And it out-shadowed ours. Two months later we've compiled, (i) more traffic, (ii) more revenue.
Put your shoulder to the wheel and grind it out. If you don't, you'd probably of failed anyways.
Same thing happened to me. Someone beat me to it. But I just kept working on it (still not done actually. hehe). They are making money, so this confirms that my idea will work. It is more of a reassurance than a threat/de-motivation to me.
And the other guy could use a little competition. I jsut have to "up" my product a little bit.
If they fail, why did they fail? What will you do differently to succeed that they did not?
If they are successful and service becomes popular you now know there is a market. Take your idea, take their good ideas, and combine them into your own better than originally planned idea. Take some of their market, make some of your own market.
Think of it as competition. If you know you can do better go forward and nip on their heels. Your product will be better (theirs might too).
However, it almost sounds like you are trying to make an excuse to give up. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it.
What problem you are solving? They might have the same idea, but are they solving the same problem? Maybe they are not solving any problem, and just infatuated with the idea. Suppose you have a deeper understanding of the problem and who has that problem, then this is your edge.
keep going, your motivation needs to stem from you having some distinguishable element to your idea that nobody has done yet. The element needs to be important enough to make a difference.
Spend some time finding how you can be distinct from people around you. Good ideas are rewarded by others trying them out, it shows that you're not just on a limb by yourself, but that it's actually something others think would be successful.
There are many companies out there that do almost exactly the same thing as another one, but the subtle differences might be the most important one. Also nobody ever said sharing the market has ever been a drawback.
Instead of being first, why not second? You could be much more successful.
Just do it. Being in limbo, going back and forth, is the worst place to be. What's the worst that'll happen? You'll have gone for it. That's more than most people can say.
It's really that simple. Now get off Hacker News and build that damn thing and submit it here for review.
There are very few (if any) industries that only have room for one player. If you love the idea, you owe it to yourself to at least try. If your competitor is just starting, they havent captured all the available audience, there is space for competition. If the idea is that great, your real fear should be who else is going to try and play.
This has been happening to me for a looong while! Its reasonable since I didn't really take initiative(quick enough, atleast) for it to be "my" project.
Technology is a weird thing; inspite of being unpredictable, there are milestones we know that will be reached; how they are reached, how soon they are reached or who does, is a matter of initiative, luck and money.
I would suggest that you look at it as an opportunity; get in touch with the guys who're onto the idea now and express how passionate you are about this; share your ideas, and any work you've done on it yet.
In short, try and jump into it with those guys! You may hit upon more than you were expecting: they're obviously people who got started and who think alike: Match made in heaven?
Yes, I think so. Like I said, it is not exactly executed like I would've done it. However, I am worried about the edge they already have in terms of being in the market already. Since it is a market with strong network effects (like many web apps) it will be hard to convince existing users to change services.
There are many ways for a market leader to lose ground to a competitor - I am witnessing one of those at the moment, with one of the services I use. You can compete on features, you can compete on aesthetics, you can compete on customer service, you can carve up the niche... the list goes on.
What you can't do is expect other people not to have the same idea - whether you get first to market or not. If that was your only plan, it wouldn't have worked out anyway.
The advice already given here is good - if you believe you can be a 'google' the their 'altavista' then your new competitor is an important validation & valuable testlab for your idea - go for it.
BUT as others have noted, that depends on your market etc. Good luck.
