Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

I know a card counter. I showed him how to condition probabilities to determine how to best play. He went for the full Monte Carlo method and he lets his simulation run for a week before he starts using it "just to make sure". It's frustrating because he doesn't get that his results are statistically significant after about 30 seconds of runtime. He still makes money doing it. The results are tangible, but he's still just mucking about.

'Quantum mechanics is certainly imposing. But an inner voice tells me that it is not yet the real thing. The theory says a lot, but does not really bring us any closer to the secret of the "old one." I, at any rate, am convinced that He does not throw dice.' --Einstein

Statistical methods can work but they are unsatisfying to the scientifically curious. You're not really a scientist if you create something that works and you don't really know why. (Not to say that the method doesn't have value. Sometimes you have to play with your Lego before you grow up.)




> You're not really a scientist if you create something that works and you don't really know why.

According to your logic, the only true "science" is mathematics. If you test the workings of your "creation" using scientific method, you're still a scientist. Scientific method is also about testing your claims empirically, and it has been successfully applied for more than a century to study of biological organisms, climate, and other complex systems that we do not "really" understand. Not to berate understanding of underlying mechanism which is always preferable, just to point out that there is more than one way to skin the cat.


I notch you up a point good sir for discovering my bias. (mathematics)


I guess I know your bias because I'm biased towards mathematics as well :).




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: