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In a word: Trust.

Microsoft wasn't late to the smartphone party, they were at the forefront. In 2005 if you wanted a smartphone the best option was probably one that ran Windows Mobile. But MS didn't take the market as seriously as they should have and didn't innovate aggressively. So they got caught with their pants down when Apple released a v1 product that was better than their nth generation offering.

MS's mobile division has since recovered in some ways with windows phone 7 but it's also had some missteps in the same time frame (zune, kin). Few people trust MS to consistently deliver a better experience and a better platform than the competition. And now they no longer have the network effect in their favor.

More savvy folks are likely to remember the debacle leading up to windows phone 7 and the severe trouble that entire team has seemed to have executing in the past. It will probably take years to erase that reputation but by then it may be too late given the pace the market moves at.

Windows Phone 7 seems to be quite solid in and of itself, but it needed to be not just incrementally better than the competition but unarguably better. As it stands the few areas where it did have an advantage are rapidly dwindling as the competition catches up.



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