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IPv4 is only "depleted" in a very technical sense. The last free /8 was allocated to a regional authority. This does not mean no IPv4 addresses are available.

The regional authorities (RIRs), the guys who actually allocate the addresses to user organizations, still have many, many blocks to allocate. The first RIR isn't expected to run out of ipv4 space until October.

That's when the shit really hits the fan -- requests for IPv4 space start to be rejected, ISPs start deploying NAT or 6RD, network administrators start jumping from windows etc.




APNIC is expected to run out sooner than October. October is on the high end of predictions, with some predicting as early as May based on burn rate. Two different sources:

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg (probability distribution per-month)

http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg

The entire point of this exercise is to raise awareness. The IPv4 reserves are depleted, and the five regions are now chewing on the crumbs. Granted, this isn't shit hitting the fan -- however, preparations for shit hitting the fan must be on everybody's radar right now.

Huge changes to infrastructure, which honestly should have been completed years ago, do not happen overnight. That's why this is news.




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