The big assumption of this article is that Facebook has to rely on Google-style in-the-margin ads as its major revenue source. I believe Facebook has the potential to bring a new form of online ads, for example, a new interactive game-like campaign that virally spread across the friend network with those participants given incentives like Facebook credits.
It's rather limiting to think Facebook as an advertiser like Google. The real potential of Facebook is way beyond this. Facebook is not just connecting people to their friends. It is a middleman - a platform that connects customers to vendors, fans to artists, and gamers to game developers, and there could be much more than these. Think iOS as a platform that connects mobile users and app developers and how it has worked out - and would have worked out even it was a standalone company. Maybe someone will develop an Amway-style direct selling platform on Facebook. Maybe someone could develop a CRM and compete with salesforce.com for SMB. Or maybe a Priceline clone with social features would emerge. And good thing is Facebook does not need to do all these. It just need to inspire a developer community around it and evolve its platform to support new possibilities.
It's gold rush again, and like last time - it wasn't the gold miners that get rich; it was the people who sold the miners and other gold rush followers the tools and supplies they needed.
It's rather limiting to think Facebook as an advertiser like Google. The real potential of Facebook is way beyond this. Facebook is not just connecting people to their friends. It is a middleman - a platform that connects customers to vendors, fans to artists, and gamers to game developers, and there could be much more than these. Think iOS as a platform that connects mobile users and app developers and how it has worked out - and would have worked out even it was a standalone company. Maybe someone will develop an Amway-style direct selling platform on Facebook. Maybe someone could develop a CRM and compete with salesforce.com for SMB. Or maybe a Priceline clone with social features would emerge. And good thing is Facebook does not need to do all these. It just need to inspire a developer community around it and evolve its platform to support new possibilities.
It's gold rush again, and like last time - it wasn't the gold miners that get rich; it was the people who sold the miners and other gold rush followers the tools and supplies they needed.