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How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune (nytimes.com)
221 points by rafaelc on Dec 19, 2017 | hide | past | favorite | 295 comments



The most interesting thing for ne about this article is they use a dynamic bitcoin price ticket inline. Ive never seen that in an mainstream article, it always looks so dated when looking negatively at $100 or $500 bitcoin...


I hope they are good guys. I hope, if bitcoin goes up more and more, they can use their resources to help solve some of the worlds problems.


A Bitcoin fortune on paper. It remains to be see if anyone will come out of this with real money.

I'm sure they'll still be rich. But $1.65 billion rich? Probably not.


Plenty of people already have. Even if they come out with only 10% of the value of their holdings that is still a Huge return for what they initially put into it


I suspect many people are holding BTC waiting for it to go to $400k or whatever.


> Plenty of people already have.

Sure, by selling to greater fools. Every dime they made came out of some other fools pocket. Eventually the music is gonna stop playing and some fool is going to be left holding the bag.


can someone tell me something i've been wondering for a couple days now (considering taking the plunge and toying around with bitcoin): how fast can you execute trades on coinbase/gdax? obviously i'm asking if i could experiment with hft-esque strategies. is that possible or the clearing time too long?

note: on a very small scale (like ~100$ total "aum")


There are already open source implementation of arbitrage/hft style trading bots on GitHub. This a market with a large population of software engineers.

Exchanges have open APIs that you can use for trading. They execute pretty much instantly.


Could you post some links? I’ve only found GunBot so far, and I wasn’t too impressed.


You're gonna get killed by transaction fees.


I think on gdax there's no fees for maker trades, only takers.


If you're doing trades through coinbase or similar, you'll get hit with large fees. Going to the exchanges is much cheaper.


What? Fees are 0.1%. that's nothing compared to fees for regular stocks exchanges.

I'm perfectly fine paying 10 cents for every $100 I trade.


What are the fees for regular stock exchanges?


Roughly similar: http://nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=PriceListTrading2

But GDAX is a vertically integrated exchange and retail trading platform, so the 0.1% taker fee is all you pay. A stock exchange won't talk to you directly so you must pay additional broker/clearing/bank fees.

Real all-in fees for stock can be 2 USD to trade 2k USD, so 0.1%, same as GDAX. But you can also find fees of 10 USD to trade 100k USD and many other rate examples which are either higher or lower.

I think a lot of people don't notice the huge difference between a traditional exchange (which does not handle money, only agreements about money) and GDAX (vertically integrated exchange + clearing house + trading application).


Did they really post that QR code?


It's almost certainly a prop. At worst, a previously-used wallet that has since been emptied.


This is a fragmented wallet backup (Armory), so you would still need one more key before you can get access to the wallet's funds (the backup they showed requires 2 out of 3 keys for access).

https://youtu.be/nyeMtM-Gclw


Interesting that it's only one of two necessary.

But given how it's posed for the photo it's (hopefully) a prop.


Or an empty address.


Well, they were at right place at right time speaking about BTC


I think they should actualize some their gains after making a 100x profit.

That's what a smart investor would do.


If both items are products that store of value. If it cost 1x amount of energy to mine gold and 3x amount energy to mine bitcoins and keep it secure. Should bitcoin be value more than gold ?


I find this link it looks mine gold cost far more energy consumption. (6.6 vs 123.3 In 2016) https://srsroccoreport.com/bitcoin-vs-gold-which-ones-a-bubb...


is it liquid in the way gold is ?


Let's call it "differently liquid". Your question implies that gold is itself liquid, but it can't be spent in the way of cash, and in its physical form it cannot be as quickly traded for another asset the way a paper asset could be traded.

In this sense, bitcoin and gold are similar, though it is probably easier to trade gold as a paper asset, and easier to spend bitcoin as a currency.

But I don't think any of the above are a fair characterization of bitcoin beyond the current moment. It is changing too quickly. Over the next 6 months I can easily imagine bitcoin having further liquidity issues as popularity gains, block size limits # of transactions, etc. I can equally imagine the next 6 months easing these issues as the inflection point of these issues force change that has been unpalatable until no alternative was possible.

All speculation though, and probably not very insightful for anyone familiar with the topics. My point is simply that gold and its market dynamics will not change in that time frame, while bitcoin's must change, so comparisons to gold are stretching an analogy at this point.


Depends in some countries gold is absolutely a medium of exchange and I can convert say 10 mill in gold etf's to $ or £ in a few seconds


Liquidity problems are an issue with exchanges, not Bitcoin itself. I can email you a Bitcoin instantly. Good luck doing that with a gold bar.


On the other hand, gold will remain liquid in a situation where the technological fabric of current society breaks down. That kind of survivalist logic is one major reason why private individuals own gold.

If I keep Krugerrands stashed under my pillow because I expect Neo-Stalinists to one day take control of the continent and confiscate all property held in digital systems, it doesn't seem like Bitcoin will give me much peace of mind. Surely the New World Order will shut down my Internet access too?

(I could be wrong though. The Bitcoin maximalists are a weird bunch. I follow one such guy on Twitter, and he seems to post a lot of pictures of guns with USB sticks when he's not promising to take more Bitcoin tattoos or bashing Ethereum as "beta cuck fake coin".)


> I follow one such guy on Twitter, and he seems to post a lot of pictures of guns with USB sticks when he's not promising to take more Bitcoin tattoos or bashing Ethereum as "beta cuck fake coin".

There's a range of topics (money, power, sex, death) that do funny things to the human mind. When broaching said topics, most if not all people become unfathomably stupid in various ways.


Yes it's true, you can send bitcoin wallets through email. But only if you really must, which is never.

I'm not entirely sure how sending bitcoin wallets through email would solve liquidity issues though.

But again, you're right. The barbarous relic of forlorn ages can't be emailed. It must rely on the tentative lack of duplicator ray technology to avoid double spending problems.


> I can email you a Bitcoin instantly

Where by "instantly" you mean "takes at least an hour and costs a fortune"?


>Where by "instantly" you mean "takes at least an hour and costs a fortune"?

No. I could email the private keys for any amount of bitcoin to anyone on earth instantly. Or do it with morse code over a telegraph...or smoke signals, it doesn't matter. Transactions on the blockchain are a different issue entirely.


Without liquidity its point less and arguably worthless but you could transfer Gold ETFs electronically to me


BTC is pretty liquid. Tens of millions change hands hourly/daily.

The linked article even cites one hodlr that purchased a professional hockey team with his crypto profits.


$550M on just the Coinbase BTC-USD book in the past 24 hours. $1B on Bitfinex. Liquidity is currently very strong.


That is trading volume, not liquidity. And we should be wary of the trading volume on bitcoin exchanges, a lot of it is manipulated. (In particular, I would never trust any numbers coming from Bitfinex)


Coinbase is not a sketchy exchange by any means, and while I'm cautious about Bitfinex their volume is quite believable given they are the default choice for non US persons.

That's also why I quoted USD, if you include crypto-crypto volume and some of the zero fee exchanges it definitely becomes nonsense.


Ok...last 10 minutes proved your point. That was bananas.


What happened?


Coinbase added Bitcoin Cash to GDAX.

BTC plummeted from mid $17.8k to $14.9k in 15 minutes, now back to $16.6k. ETH from $857 to $700 same period, back to $771 now.

Good times...


Isn't there only 16m currently in circulation?

Edit: ah did you mean dollars?


Fiat liquidity will come once we get some more professional exchanges run doing bigger volumes.

The coin itself is of course quite liquid although transaction fees mean you aren't buying your weekly shopping with bitcoin. But maybe you can pay your monthly rent.


What's the difference between emailing it instantly, and doing a transaction that takes time and costs a transaction fee?


Facebook's market cap is $521 Billion. So good on them but they probably should have had more of FB.




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